I completely agree that this is optimistic, but here's why I honestly think the Cardinals could - not will, but could - challenge for the NL Central this year:
Adam, you should be optimistic about the Cardinals’ chances: there are plenty of reasons to do so (our rotation is on the brink of injury hell, we have no set-up man, we insist on wasting Alfonso Soriano in the leadoff spot; you have Albert Pujols and several indistinguishable lefty outfielders with some power). My problem with the article is that Richard Justice brings up none of them.
“The Cubs have thrown money around the last three winters, and all it has gotten them is more disappointment. Does anyone think Milton Bradley is going to decide a division race?”
Nope. It’s actually Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Soriano, Soto, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, and Marmol who will decide the division race. The nice thing about having more good players than the other teams is that one new addition doesn’t win you the division. Even the Cubs don’t think Bradley wins them the division, just not for the reason Justice does. Plus, I’ll take this sort of disappointment over the other 27 years’ worth of Cubs baseball I’ve been alive for. Does he seriously want to argue that they’ve been worse because they’ve been spending big money?
“Besides, the Cardinals have something the Cubs don’t: depth in the minor league system.”
Okay, let’s weigh “minor league depth” against “major league talent,” and ask the GMs which one they’d rather have in the context of winning in ’09.
“Remember how annoyed former Cards GM Walt Jocketty would get in 2001 when reporters would ask about a certain kid making the team?
‘No, no, no,’ Jocketty would say.
Albert Pujols eventually convinced Jocketty and everyone else in the organization that he could handle a jump to the big leagues.”
Correct. This relates to the current farmhands how, exactly?
“Regardless of how the youngsters pitch, they’re not likely to be worse than last season, when the Cardinals led the National League in blown saves and made good on only 58 percent of their chances.... Maybe you heard third base might be a problem with Troy Glaus sidelined indefinitely after undergoing shoulder surgery. Maybe you didn’t hear the Cardinals love their minor league talent at the position.”
I’ll buy the “they can’t be any worse in the bullpen” argument. But Troy Glaus was fourth among NL third basemen in EqA per Baseball Prospectus. The bullpen should be better given a bunch of rookies and no-names only because last year’s cast reminded people of tee-ball pitchers; Justice is correct in seeing that. For the same reason, however, third base without Glaus should be far worse because of the high standard he set last year.
Oh, also: Brett Wallace will not replicate Albert Pujols’ ’01, nor will David Freese hit .306 in the majors. I can’t think of a witty explanation, but the argument doesn’t deserve one.
“These kids guarantee the Cardinals nothing. The Cubs are going to spring training with fewer questions and more certainty.”
Talent. Also more talent. The Cubs are going to spring training with more talent. That is why they will win the Central. Not fewer questions, more certainty, sacrificing a live chicken, or the fiery Latin temper of Carlos Zambrano. More talent.
“Then again, if the Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both stay healthy, the Cardinals could again end up atop the National League.”
And if my aunt had a scrotum she’d be my uncle. Both are about as likely to occur between now and October.
“No National League team is better than the Cardinals if those two are healthy.”
“Each franchise is forced to do things differently. The Cardinals have been built the way good organizations traditionally have been built: from the ground up.
Getting back to the playoffs would be a tribute to a franchise that does things right.”
Here’s what appears to be the crux of the argument, besides “I intend to ignore mountains of empirical evidence and declare a winner based on... well, based mainly on willful ignorance of evidence.” The Cardinals “do it right,” and build “from the ground up.” And that worked great in the good ol’ days, when nobody swung for the fences on 2-0, lifted weights, conversed with black people, or was free to sign with other teams after playing out their option year. It’s certainly more financially sound to build from the ground up. You can even express a preference to watch players progress through the minors and grow up in the big leagues. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best way to go about winning a World Series.
Farm systems have three purposes with regard to roster construction: general training of players, grooming minor leaguers to play in your major-league lineup, and chips to trade for established big-leaguers. There is no intrinsic on-field benefit to playing a home-grown lineup. I don’t quite get the irrational bias against free agency as a means by which to improve your team. You can draft and develop, you can trade, and/or you can sign guys. The only defensible point from the article is that Justice prefers the Cards’ method of roster construction (and in the interest of brevity I won’t detail the free agent signings/trades that got them the World Series in ’06) to that of the Cubs. You can prefer that method. You can even suggest that the young kids will be really good. But even Ronnie Woo-Woo would call you a dope for saying that the team will succeed because the Cubs spend money to bring in outsiders and the Cardinals rely on homegrown youngsters.
I'm pretty sure thats the frontrunner for the "Longest, most indepth comment ever" prize for this blog. Wow. I'd add something more about baseball, but lets be honest, among you guys, I'd just embarass myself.
3 comments:
Oh, my head.
Adam, you should be optimistic about the Cardinals’ chances: there are plenty of reasons to do so (our rotation is on the brink of injury hell, we have no set-up man, we insist on wasting Alfonso Soriano in the leadoff spot; you have Albert Pujols and several indistinguishable lefty outfielders with some power). My problem with the article is that Richard Justice brings up none of them.
“The Cubs have thrown money around the last three winters, and all it has gotten them is more disappointment. Does anyone think Milton Bradley is going to decide a division race?”
Nope. It’s actually Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Soriano, Soto, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, and Marmol who will decide the division race. The nice thing about having more good players than the other teams is that one new addition doesn’t win you the division. Even the Cubs don’t think Bradley wins them the division, just not for the reason Justice does. Plus, I’ll take this sort of disappointment over the other 27 years’ worth of Cubs baseball I’ve been alive for. Does he seriously want to argue that they’ve been worse because they’ve been spending big money?
“Besides, the Cardinals have something the Cubs don’t: depth in the minor league system.”
Okay, let’s weigh “minor league depth” against “major league talent,” and ask the GMs which one they’d rather have in the context of winning in ’09.
“Remember how annoyed former Cards GM Walt Jocketty would get in 2001 when reporters would ask about a certain kid making the team?
‘No, no, no,’ Jocketty would say.
Albert Pujols eventually convinced Jocketty and everyone else in the organization that he could handle a jump to the big leagues.”
Correct. This relates to the current farmhands how, exactly?
“Regardless of how the youngsters pitch, they’re not likely to be worse than last season, when the Cardinals led the National League in blown saves and made good on only 58 percent of their chances.... Maybe you heard third base might be a problem with Troy Glaus sidelined indefinitely after undergoing shoulder surgery. Maybe you didn’t hear the Cardinals love their minor league talent at the position.”
I’ll buy the “they can’t be any worse in the bullpen” argument. But Troy Glaus was fourth among NL third basemen in EqA per Baseball Prospectus. The bullpen should be better given a bunch of rookies and no-names only because last year’s cast reminded people of tee-ball pitchers; Justice is correct in seeing that. For the same reason, however, third base without Glaus should be far worse because of the high standard he set last year.
Oh, also: Brett Wallace will not replicate Albert Pujols’ ’01, nor will David Freese hit .306 in the majors. I can’t think of a witty explanation, but the argument doesn’t deserve one.
“These kids guarantee the Cardinals nothing. The Cubs are going to spring training with fewer questions and more certainty.”
Talent. Also more talent. The Cubs are going to spring training with more talent. That is why they will win the Central. Not fewer questions, more certainty, sacrificing a live chicken, or the fiery Latin temper of Carlos Zambrano. More talent.
“Then again, if the Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both stay healthy, the Cardinals could again end up atop the National League.”
And if my aunt had a scrotum she’d be my uncle. Both are about as likely to occur between now and October.
“No National League team is better than the Cardinals if those two are healthy.”
Cocaine’s a hell of a drug.
“Each franchise is forced to do things differently. The Cardinals have been built the way good organizations traditionally have been built: from the ground up.
Getting back to the playoffs would be a tribute to a franchise that does things right.”
Here’s what appears to be the crux of the argument, besides “I intend to ignore mountains of empirical evidence and declare a winner based on... well, based mainly on willful ignorance of evidence.” The Cardinals “do it right,” and build “from the ground up.” And that worked great in the good ol’ days, when nobody swung for the fences on 2-0, lifted weights, conversed with black people, or was free to sign with other teams after playing out their option year. It’s certainly more financially sound to build from the ground up. You can even express a preference to watch players progress through the minors and grow up in the big leagues. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best way to go about winning a World Series.
Farm systems have three purposes with regard to roster construction: general training of players, grooming minor leaguers to play in your major-league lineup, and chips to trade for established big-leaguers. There is no intrinsic on-field benefit to playing a home-grown lineup. I don’t quite get the irrational bias against free agency as a means by which to improve your team. You can draft and develop, you can trade, and/or you can sign guys. The only defensible point from the article is that Justice prefers the Cards’ method of roster construction (and in the interest of brevity I won’t detail the free agent signings/trades that got them the World Series in ’06) to that of the Cubs. You can prefer that method. You can even suggest that the young kids will be really good. But even Ronnie Woo-Woo would call you a dope for saying that the team will succeed because the Cubs spend money to bring in outsiders and the Cardinals rely on homegrown youngsters.
I'm pretty sure thats the frontrunner for the "Longest, most indepth comment ever" prize for this blog. Wow. I'd add something more about baseball, but lets be honest, among you guys, I'd just embarass myself.
For the record, I definitely read the response and think it's right in many ways. It's just so long that I have no idea how to respond.
Well done, Trebek.
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